New Solar Cycle Could Spell Trouble For Farmers’ Cell Phones, GPS, More

By Jane Fyksen, Crops Editor
Thursday, February 28, 2008 1:26 PM CST

Farmers make hay with the sun shines. But in the coming decade, they might be frustrated by interrupted cell phone conversations, while they’re out in their fields, thanks to intensifying “storms” on the sun. The same phenomenon might possibly also wreck havoc with the yield monitor on the combine.

Crop producers depend on their cell phones and GPS signals to get the work done on their farms. A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity is on its way n bringing with it increased risks for GPS signals and cell phones n not to mention power grids; critical military, civilian and airline communications; even ATM transactions.

That’s according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which last month announced increasing risk for electrical systems in the U.S. and the first official sunspot belonging to the new “Solar Cycle 24.”

NOAA’s reach goes from the surface of the sun to the depths of the ocean floor as it works to keep the U.S. informed of the changing environment, with daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings and climate monitoring and more. NOAA’s roots date to 1807, with the nation’s first scientific agency, the Survey of the Coast, was established. Since then NOAA has emerged as an international leader on scientific and environmental matters.

NOAA reports that a “new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity,” bringing with it greater risk for electrical systems, showed signs it was on its way last month when the cycle’s first sunspot appears in the sun’s northern hemisphere.

“This sunspot is like the first robin of spring,” says solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. “In this case, it’s an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years.”

A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the surface of the sun. The new 11-year cycle, detected by NOAA, is called “Solar Cycle 24.” It’s expected to build gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar storms reaching maximum by 2011 or 2012, though NOAA notes that “devastating ‘storms’ can occur at any time.”

During a solar storm, highly charged material ejected from the sun may head toward Earth, where it can bring down power grids, disrupt critical communications, and threaten astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms can also knock out commercial communications satellites and swamp Global Positioning System signals. Routine activities such as talking on a cell phone or getting money from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a large part of the globe, according to NOAA scientists.

During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the sun. Solar flares and vast explosions n known as coronal mass ejections n shoot energetic photons and highly charged matter toward Earth, jolting this planet’s ionosphere and geomagnetic field, and as noted, potentially causing some major irritation for folks who rely on high-tech devices to do their work n folks like crop producers.

These same storms illuminate night skies with brilliant rippling sheets of red and green, known as auroras, or the northern (or southern) lights, depending where you live. Thus Wisconsin farmers might want to keep a closer eye on the sky on clear nights, in order to enjoy a spectacular display in the northern night sky n one their friends in town will be less apt to enjoy because of the interfering lights of the city.

The aurora is a dynamic and visually delicate manifestation of solar-induced geomagnetic storms. The solar wind energizes ions in the magnetosphere. These particles usually enter the Earth’s upper atmosphere near the polar regions. When particles strike the molecules and atoms of the thin, high atmosphere, some of them start to glow in different colors. As the “storm” intensifies, aurora spread toward the equator. While the aurora provide pretty displays, they’re “just a visible sign of atmospheric changes that may wreak havoc on technological systems, NOAA scientists say.

Sunspots n dark areas on the solar surface n contain strong magnetic fields that are constantly shifting. A moderate-sized sunspot is about as large as the Earth. Sunspots form and dissipate over periods of days or weeks. They occur when strong magnetic fields emerge through the solar surface and allow the area to cool slightly; this area appears as a dark spot in contrast with the sun. The rotation of sunspots can be seen on the solar surface; they take about 27 days to make a complete rotation as seen from earth.

Groups of sunspots are often the sites of “flares.” Over the last 300 years, the average number of sunspots has regularly waxed and waned in an 11-year sunspot cycle. The sun n like earth n has its seasons but its “year” equals 11 of ours. The sunspot cycle marks changes in the sun. “Solar Minimum” refers to several earth years when the number of sunspots is lowest; “Solar Maximum” occurs in the years when sunspots are numerous n and activity on the sun and its effects on earth are also high.

Solar flares are intense, short-lived releases of energy. They’re seen as bright areas on the sun n and as bursts of noise in radio wavelengths. They can last minutes to hours. Flares are our solar system’s largest explosive events. The primary energy source for flares appears to be the tearing and reconnection of strong magnetic fields. They radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum, from gamma rays to x-rays, through visible light out to kilometer-long radio waves.

“Our growing dependence on highly sophisticated, space-based technologies means we are far more vulnerable to space weather today than in the past,” says Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administor. “NOAA’s space weather monitoring and forecasts are critical for the nation’s ability to function smoothly during solar disturbances.”

Last April, in coordination with an international panel of solar experts, NOAA issued a forecast that Solar Cycle 24 would start early this year. The panel was evenly split on if it’d be a strong or weak cycle. Solar cycle intensity is measured in maximum number of sunspots n as noted, dark blotches on the sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely major solar storms will occur.”

It isn’t easy making predictions about the weather for the upcoming cropping system, much less the sun. “By giving a long-term outlook, we’re advancing a new field n space climate n that’s still in its infancy,” says retired Air Force Brigadier General David Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service.

According to NOAA, many communication systems use the ionosphere to reflect radio signals over long distances. Ionospheric storms can affect High Frequency radio communication, leading to rapidly fluctuating signals and unexpected propagation paths. TV and commercial radio are little affected by solar activity, but ground-to-air, ship-to-shore, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe and amateur radio are frequently disrupted.

GPS systems are affected when solar activity causes sudden variations in the density of the ionosphere. GPS receivers can lose lock. Further, geomagnetic storms and increases in solar ultraviolet emission heat the earth’s upper atmosphere, causing it to expand. The heated air rises and the density at the orbit of satellites increases, resulting in increased drag on satellites, causing them to slow and change orbit slightly.

Electrical transmission equipment is also at risk. NOAA notes that in 1989, in Montreal, Quebec, six million people were without power for nine hours as a result of a huge geomagnetic storm.

There’s also growing interest in the impact on biological systems. Even homing pigeons have it rough during geomagnetic storms. Pigeons and other migratory animals, like dolphins and whales, have internal compasses composed of the mineral magnetite wrapped in bundles of nerve cells. While it probably isn’t pigeon’s primary method of navigation, there’ve been many pigeons that haven’t returned home from a release site during geomagnetic storms. Because of such losses, pigeon handlers have learned to ask for geomagnetic alerts to schedule their races.

Pigeons aren’t the only ones possibly befuddled. When communication signals break up, farmers who rely on their cell phones for everything from keeping track of their fieldwork crew to market grain might, too.

Comments »

Comment on this story

Comments will be approved within 48 hours

Name:

Email: (optional)

Comments:

Image Verification: (Case sensitive)