Big Crop Makes Storage Big Issue This Fall

By Jane Fyksen, Crops Editor
Thursday, August 23, 2007 9:58 AM CDT

There’s been general concern about the capacity to store this fall’s corn crop, expected to exceed 13 billion bushels, reports University of Illinois marketing specialist Darrel Good.

With production forecasts now available, prospective fall supplies can be calculated.

While the 2007 harvest of fall crops is spread over a long period of time, the magnitude of fall supplies can be represented by the expected size of the Sept. 1 inventory of the 2006 crops, the Sept. 1 inventory of 2007 crops already harvested, and prospective size of the fall harvest of the primary crops - corn, soybeans and sorghum. USDA projects the Sept. 1 inventory of corn, soybeans, and sorghum at 1.75 billion bushels.

“We forecast the Sept. 1 inventory of wheat, oats, and barley at 2.16 billion bushels, so that Sept. 1 stocks of the six major crops may be near 3.91 billion bushels. Stocks of these crops totaled 4.545 billion bushels on Sept. 1, 2006,” states Good, noting that USDA forecasts production of corn, sorghum and soybeans at 16.154 billion bushels, suggesting a fall crop supply of 20.064 billion bushels. Production of these three crops totaled 14.001 billion bushels in 2006, resulting in a total fall crop supply of 18.546 billion bushels.

“Excluding rice (fall supplies will be about equal those of a year ago), these calculations suggest that the 2007 fall crop supply will be about 1.518 billion bushels larger than the 2006 supply. However, the largest supply, based on the methodology used here, was in the fall of 2005 when inventories plus production totaled 19.288 billion bushels. It appears that the supply this year will be about 776 million bushels (4 percent) larger than the previous record supply of 2005,” says Good.

Good notes that additional storage capacity has been added since the fall of 2005. USDA provides estimates of on-farm and off-farm storage capacity each year in the December Grain Stocks report. Estimates of off-farm capacity exclude, among others, facilities that are used to store only rice or peanuts and capacity at processing facilities that are exclusive to cottonseed and peanuts.

Crop storage capacity as of Dec. 1, 2006 was estimated at 20.347 billion bushels, 392 million bushels above the Dec. 1, 2005 capacity and 653 million above the Dec. 1, 2004 capacity.

“It is not known how much capacity has been added in 2007,” he admits. “If capacity has been added at the same rate as in 2006, total U.S. capacity this fall may be near 20.739 billion bushels. That exceeds our calculation of fall crop supplies by 675 million bushels. The calculation of surplus capacity was 1.801 billion bushels last year, but only 667 million bushels in 2005,” Good deciphers.

“On the surface, it appears that issues of storage capacity will not be any more severe than in 2005. The storage challenge in 2005 was further complicated by hurricane Katrina which interrupted the flow of grain through the Gulf. A significant amount of temporary storage will likely be required again this year, but probably not more than was required in 2004 and 2005.”

Good says regional storage issues could be more severe than implied by the previous calculations. One of the results of the anticipated storage crunch this fall has been the relatively weak basis for harvest delivery. In south-central Illinois, for example, the average harvest bid on Aug. 16 was 50 cents under December futures. That compares to 37 cents on the same date last year, 24 cents in 2005, and 20 cents in 2004. The basis strengthened to 45.5 cents under on Aug. 17, but remains weak by historic standards.

With a 32-cent carry from December 2007 to July 2008 futures, the average harvest bid is 77.5 cents under July 2008 futures. In each of the past three years, the basis has strengthened to about 15 cents under July futures by the end of June. It appears that the market is currently offering about 60 cents per bushel to store corn from harvest to June in that region of the country.

“Unless the size of the fall harvest exceeds current forecasts, the corn basis could strengthen quickly after the fall harvest, in part due to storage demand for corn,” Good notes.

“Consumption of U.S. corn during the 2007-08 marketing year is projected at 12.69 billion bushels. The rate of consumption varies seasonally, but that is an average of nearly 35 million bushels per day, about 4 million above the average of the past year.”

Think ahead to storage season

With market prices and ethanol demand on the rise, farmers will be dealing with corn storage issues, along with the hazards associated with grain bin operations. With harvest just around the corner, producers need to prepare their bins. They could be piling some on the ground, too.

"It is a wise investment of time to spend a few hours maintaining a bin for the $40,000 to $80,000 worth of stored grain in each bin,” says Ken Hellevang, North Dakota State University ag engineer.

He recommends repairing any holes that may allow water to enter. Look for holes by looking for sunlight coming into the bin. Clean the inside of bins. Examine the inside of aeration ducts for debris and insects. Service aeration ducts, fans and vents to ensure proper operation. And don’t forget to clean around the outside of the bin, Hellevang adds.

The recommended long-term storage moisture content (summer temperature) and equilibrium moisture contents for corn and soybeans at 70 degrees and 60 percent relative humidity are, respectively: 12.8 percent EMC and 13 percent (storage moisture), and 10.2 percent EMC and 11 percent (storage moisture).

He reminds producers that various factors impact moisture meter accuracy, including: representative sample, grain variety, geographic location, physical damage, temperature (less than 40 degrees), density (test weight) and moisture uniformity.

Temperature plays an important role. The optimum temperature for insects is between 70 and 90 degrees. Cooling below 70 degrees reduces insect reproduction and feeding activity. Insects go dormant below 50 degrees. Optimum temperature for mold is about 80 degrees, but mold growth is extremely slow below 30 to 40 degrees. The expected time grain will store well is approximately doubled for every 10 degrees the grain is cooled.

Hellevang reminds that aeration should be used to cool grain whenever outdoor temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the grain. For winter storage, grain should be cooled to about 20 degrees in northern states, like Wisconsin.

"The time required to cool grain weighing 56 to 60 pounds per bushel using aeration can be estimated by dividing 15 by the airflow rate," Hellevang says. "For example, the grain will cool in about 75 hours using an airflow rate of 0.2 cubic feet per minute per bushel. Air takes the path of least resistance, so cooling times will vary. Measure grain temperature at several locations to ensure that all the grain has been cooled."

Weed seeds and foreign material are usually wetter than the grain, and will accumulate in the center when grain is loaded into a bin. That material should be removed using a grain cleaner before storage, then unload some grain using a center take-out after the bin has been filled or distribute the material while filling the bin.

Hellevang reminds growers that stored grain should be monitored biweekly during critical fall and spring months, when outside air temperatures change rapidly, as well as during the summer. After it’s been cooled to winter storage temperature, check it at least monthly. Check and record grain temperature and condition at several locations, he directs.

Temperature history can be used to detect grain warming, which may indicate storage problems. Look for condensation on the roof or crusting of the grain surface. Probe to examine grain below the surface.

"Bring a grain sample indoors if the grain temperature is below 50 degrees and allow it to warm to room temperature," Hellevang says. "Place the grain on a white surface and examine for any insect activity. Fumigation is not recommended when grain is stored at temperatures below 60 degrees. However, most storage problems can be controlled during the winter by cooling the grain."

More information about dry grain aeration, handling and storage is available at http://www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/abeng/postharvest.htm. Additional information is also available in The "Dry Grain Aeration Systems Design Handbook" and "Grain Drying, Handling and Storage Handbook" which can be purchased through the MidWest Plan Service - either separately or as a set, along with "Managing Dry Grain in Storage" and "Low Temperature and Solar Grain Drying Handbook.” Go to http://www.mwps.org, e-mail mwps@iastate.edu or call 800-562-3618.

Remember safety comes first

“Grain storage will be a hot topic this year. As farmers wait for market options and the call from ethanol plants to make corn deliveries, they will be storing more corn," says Dee Jepsen, Ohio State University safety leader. “More corn storage means more of a need to manage the grain, and that means more exposures to grain bin hazards.”

Jepsen lists the top five grain bin hazards as “engulfment” (or entrapment), entanglement, falls, electrocution and explosions.

Jepsen says it only takes a matter of seconds to become covered in grain, and the tremendous pressure on the body makes it difficult - if not impossible - to pull somebody out. “The pounds of pressure from the grain can be has high as four times the weight of the item engulfed by the grain,” says Jepsen.

Entanglement generally happens when loose clothing or shoelaces get caught in moving equipment. Jepsen warns entanglement can happen quite easily when cleaning out bins or sweeping corn grain to the auger.

Falls occur where ladders are not properly mounted. Safety cages and rest platforms are highly recommended.

Electrocutions happen most often when electrical wires are too close to the grain bin roof. “Ten feet is considered minimum safe distance from electrical wires. Not only do farmers have to be cautious to not brush up against wires, but they also must remember that electricity can arc from one conduit to another,” says Jepsen. “The best thing to do is to spend the extra money and install the electrical needs underground.”

While explosions are rare, they can still happen in larger grain facilities in situations where grain dust levels are high. “Farmers need to remember that grain dust is highly flammable,” reminds Jepsen. “Maintaining good housekeeping in confined spaces is the best way to keep dust levels down.”

Grain might be piled: Resources

Some Wisconsin farmers might be piling grain on the ground this year. An online resource from Purdue University can help producers with outdoor storage decisions. It’s a free spreadsheet called the “Outdoor Pile Volume Calculator” at cobweb.ecn.purdue.edu/~grainlab/exten-pubs.htm#Emergency. With this spreadsheet, farmers can calculate capacity, angles of repose, sidewalls and more.

Another free spreadsheet from Purdue is the Dry Grain Aeration Systems Design Tool at cobweb.ecn.purdue.edu/~grainlab/exten-pubs.htm#Designing. “The spreadsheet tool allows you to design an aeration system for everything from a round storage structure all the way to flat storage buildings and outdoor systems," says Dirk Maier, Purdue Extension ag engineer. "The spreadsheet goes with a handbook that’s available from the MidWest Plan Service on aeration system design. All the calculations that are outlined in the book are programmed into the spreadsheet." (See the Plan Service website above.)

Regardless of whether they place their grain in buildings specifically designed for storage or in temporary storage facilities, farmers need to handle grain properly, Maier stresses. He recommends a four-step process called “SLAM”.

"We talk about four best management practices that we categorize under sanitation, loading, aeration and monitoring," Maier says.

"Sanitation refers to all of the preparation of the storage structures, making sure they are structurally sound, clean inside and out, and that they have all the necessary equipment such as aeration equipment and loading and unloading equipment in place and functional before we put any grain in the bin,” he says.

"As we get closer to harvest, we need to think of loading the grain into the bin. We don’t want to allow the grain to just sit there but, instead, we want to core it and take the fine material and peak out,” he continues.

Aeration involves cooling the grain when outdoor temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the grain itself. Monitoring, as already noted, is important so insects or grain spoilage can be detected before grain quality is lost.

Producers can learn more about SLAM from Purdue publication ID-207, "Maximize Grain Quality and Profits Using S.L.A.M.: The Post-Harvest IPM Strategy” at http://www.ces.purdue.edu.

Additional grain handling tips are on the Purdue Post-Harvest Grain Quality and Stored Product Protection Program website at http://www.grainquality.org.

Other places for information

There’s even more information on the web that farmers might need this fall. Check out: “Cost of Storing Grain” from Iowa State University http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/pdf/a2-33.pdf; “The Economics of On-Farm Storage” from Kansas State University, http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/publications/stor_budget/mf2474.pdf; and this one from Iowa State: “Renting On-farm Grain Storage,” (http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/articles/edwards/EdwOct05b.html).

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